All Posts by Douhk

Originally posted by AmazingAvery

Originally posted by silmaril

My guess is that after the server mergers, we are left with 4 english servers in EU, 8 localized versions with lower pop and 5 US servers.

Huge guesswork here, but I'd estimate about 10k paying customers per server once merged, with less on the Spanish servers. That leaves around 150k customers when we enter into 2009.

With good patches with wanted features and content, they can keep that number through 2009 since there's a lot of people already with an account that's likely to recieve a "welcome back" email during the next year. While the ones here that quit make it sound like FC is the devil incarnate, for sure there's a lot of the 500k+ ex-subscribers that is going to try it again. I think the game will be good enough to keep quite a few of those.

With the expansion next fall comes the opportunity to do another ad campaign and get more ex-players back, so I think they can actually improve their numbers a bit then (if everything goes right), making them cross back above the 200k mark in about a year.

A lot of ifs and estimates, but I think that is a probable scenario if FC delivers in the coming months

 

I think your thought process is spot on as it's akin to mine :P Although I would like to add that as the market is always growing I think there is a good chunk of people out there that haven't played the game yet. Getting the message across to that core demograph, to see if they think they will like it or not comes down really to word of mouth from essentially those trying it out again and if it passes the grade second time out. The way things are moving now, you can feel the momentum with the game and the focus is great. Substance wise the past month has been the best yet, from which I'm sure the dev's take motivation as it really is a job well done lately. So long as FC can get the very much needed high level content in, this gives people a better impression that the company will look after you/them more when your max level. Taking steps to make Tarantia Commons forth coming update a high level zone instead of mid level is the exact thought process that is needed. Keeping this direction up is key.

Good stuff mentioned in these two posts, for sure.

Yes, I think there X-pac will help substantially. By the time it is released, a good amount of the game should be "finished" (in other words, at the point it was originally meant to be), and AoC will have a second chance at actually advertising the truth and win back a small number of the playerbase. However, if I predict AoC continues down the viral marketting path by the time their X-Pac runs along, they'll simply be plowing the final nail into their chest. It is highly interesting how a company is able to do this to themselves, but we'll see what they do.

The fact that the market is always growing is a good and bad thing, AA. Sure, I agree; word of mouth can help substantially, take VG for example. It basically plummeted to death until it was put on the station pass. By the time it reached rock bottom, over time it eventually has grown to a reasonable playerbase (I'd guess they now have maybe 50k subs), and I highly doubt that would have happened without word of mouth on the changes the game has made. However, right now I don't see how it's helping AoC at the moment; players are declining at a constant pace, there is still no signs of a plateau. However, it may help out later in the future now with Ymir's Pass, the PvP ugrade, the upcoming high-level content and the fact that FC right now seems to be desperately (in a good way) working their arses off. Keep in mind though, even if word of mouth actually helps this game in the future (if anything, of all people you should know, it's been dramatically HURTING this game), it will only be of a mediocre assistance.

The bad thing about the market growing is, obviously, more competition. Multitudes upon multitudes of new, fresh meat is on the horizon. While overall I believe AoC has substantially helped itself in the long run by keeping up it's graphics and quality (whereas this is going to dramatically stunt WAR in the future, that I can guarantee), it is questionable whether that is enough to keep it on the same level of upcoming games. Hell, right now it's questionable if the game can be held up to current MMOs. HOWEVER... as you say, and this is a statement I agree with 110%... "keeping this [content upgrades] up is key". I believe what content they add, how quickly they add it, and the quality they make it with is a HUGE factor on the success of this game.

Originally posted by arkady09

Originally posted by Douhk

Originally posted by crysent

I think what it really comes down to is the games that are released in the next year.

Granted I consider AoC a niche game, there is some heavy competition comming out in this area.  I think if Darkfall delivers, really delivers both WAR and AoC could be in some serious trouble.  On the other hand if AoC does not deliver then it could hold on.  If the next years releases are as bad as this last years then AoC should be ok.

 

But I'm really putting my hope in Darkfall! (I know its a long shot)

 

Aye, this is something interesting that's mentioned as well. I agree, what we see in next could have a huge impact on the success of AoC; if we get nothing out of the ordinary while AoC is at the potential it was originally meant to be, it could help substantially.

Considering the company behind AOC, thats a HUGE  " IF" my friend.. HUGE GIANT - HARD TO MISS, you get the picture right?
 

I mean I cant see them getting to the 'potential that it was originally meant to be' given that from the recent patches its painfully clear that the designers marketed the game as GROUND BREAKING PVP and really they had no system even conceived at launch and the one in the game sucks and continues TO THIS DAY to be exploited. I.E. Using guards on high levels. The system doesnt have the complexity to know the difference about who attacked first? Rediculous.

I really feel like there was some fraud on the part of FUNCOM and the advertising done for Conan. No fanboi will change my or many others mind about this one. IMHO of course IMHO.

 

You misunderstand what I meant by "potential it was meant to be". When I said that, I was referring to what it was meant to be at launch in an actual game sense, not success-wise. You and I are thinking exactly on the same page. I am not that blunt; they will not be gaining anything past 300k ever again, I can almost guarantee it. FC has f***ed things up way too much for themselves to accomplish that. The game could end up being as good as they have advertised in the future, but it won't be going anywhere.

And when I say "if", I really do mean "if". It's a very big "if", but that "if" is wide-standing. The game could potentially gain back to a decent playerbase of say a constant 200k by next year, 300k is very hopeful thinking for a fan. OR, it could simply die out; the ever plummeting playerbase is showing just that over the past few months. When "it could help substantially", think of it in AoC terms... going from 100k and doubling that is pretty substantial. I'm not talking about any miracles for this game.

Yes, the game used many veils. In some cases, I will applaud a company that uses a veil in an appropriate and professional matter that is successful with it; it is only business. But in AoC's case, it could be classified as sheer fraud. I believe many players have seen the game this way as well, and the declining playerbase is a prime example of this. But, veils can be forgotten, or forgiven, over time, and even more quickly if you eventually are at a point where the veil is actually a part of the ensemble. If FC can get this trainwreck in shape as quickly as they are doing they can probably survive.

Two biggest factors for me were...

COMBAT & DESIGN:

As the OP mentions, there really is no sense of strategy within this game. I reached lvl 28 with my BW and in all honesty, not once was I really challenged or found to have to use my brains / wits to complete a goal. It is all a simple game of rock, paper, scissors; As a BW I stay back and spam my fireballs at the targets with no armor, and then eventually find myself attacked by a witch elf; of course, having no possible way to fight back unless you want to try your escape moves only to waste time, I stick to the no armored target until the witch elf finishes me off, and my only hope of survival is for some melee DPS or another BW to take care of the witch elf on me. That was the game. I was hoping this game would deliver in actual strategic combat and having to be on your toes, but it fails to deliver. I've tried all of the classes to at least lvl 10 and none of them showed that they would challenge me any more then my lvl 28 BW, which is disappointing to say the least.

Second, the design is fatally flawed. As it is already a major issue discussed, the balance of exp between PvE, scenarios, and RvR was ridiculous; the entire game was focused around a mini-game. RvR was fun if you did not like advancing and PvE was... pathetic, to say the least. And the reason PvE doesn't work is because of...

THE COMMUNITY:

I already had my doubts about this game having a good community with how great a resemblance it beared with WoW, but I hoped against it. Of course, it turned out to be exactly the same; the community of this game is just horrible in terms of MMOs. PQs... a great idea, in theory, the same way communism is good... in theory. If people are actually willing to do them, PQs would be amazing. And in all honesty, WAR did good in this respect as the PQs were generally worthwhile. The problem I had with them was that I could not find a single freakin' person who wanted any other human contact; a reminder from my olden days of WoW. It is damn near impossible to enjoy the PvE content when you cannot do it with anyone else, as it really isn't WAR's primary objective in the first place. However, community isn't as much of an issue to me as design and combat. WoW is a great example of this; I'd say it is superior to every other MMO out on the market other then it's community, which I would proclaim is the worst (second worst, the worst having to be AoC's in complete honesty). When I played WoW, I didn't even care if I could barely find others in the world to play with, the world itself kept me entertained. In WAR, I felt bored out of my mind.

So basically, there's my three main reasons why I left. If the game had a better poshness it may have been my favorite of all time. But sadly I think this game will not be able to drag me back in again, or at least not anytime soon.

Originally posted by crysent

I think what it really comes down to is the games that are released in the next year.

Granted I consider AoC a niche game, there is some heavy competition comming out in this area.  I think if Darkfall delivers, really delivers both WAR and AoC could be in some serious trouble.  On the other hand if AoC does not deliver then it could hold on.  If the next years releases are as bad as this last years then AoC should be ok.

 

But I'm really putting my hope in Darkfall! (I know its a long shot)

Aye, this is something interesting that's mentioned as well. I agree, what we see in next could have a huge impact on the success of AoC; if we get nothing out of the ordinary while AoC is at the potential it was originally meant to be, it could help substantially.

Interesting responses so far.

Originally posted by lornj

there is no answer to this question at all. noone can say whats going to happen in a year from now. the game could be shut down or it could have a huge player base over 300k. wait a year from now and then ask another more suitable question.

That's why at this moment it's a very interesting topic to discuss. As I said, AoC right now has a lot of variables going for it, which was why I gave such a broad number. This question is more then suitable for now, I don't see why not. What makes it a good time to ask is to see the estimates of players now and to see the results; we have enough evidence to make a valid hypothesis.

I especally have been liking the responses about how well they can do in Korea and Russia. Overall, Korea will substantially help their playerbase, that is, with their substantially huger MMO market; even if only a percent of the korean MMO market played, it would be worth the finances. Russia, however, I am unsure of.

How many subscribers do you think AoC will have? I am highly interested in the responses, especially the reasoning behind them.

My own response to this would be any number between 50k to 300k... very broad, obviously. The reason it's interesting is because AoC has a lot of variables going for it right now. But more importantly, I'd like to know the reasoning from others on what they think will happen to this game.

I'm willing to make a bet that they'll be in around the month Ymir's Pass is patched into the game and the final patches to their PvP system are in place. By then it will be somewhat close to what it was supposed to be at launch, and by then I'd expect a free trial to come out as well as invites for older players (at the same time of course, to get an influx of players at once).

For their sake, I hope they don't actually charge people for their real trial like they do for people using buddy passes. Probably the stupidest thing FC has going right now if you ask me.

I would see the jedi class in this game to play similarly to say a shaman if we were to compare this to WoW in this game; a jack of all trades. That is, if they do go that route with the classes. However, if they have subclasses (which really is the only way I could see this making sense) is if they have jedi sentinels, weaponmasters, forcemasters, etc. Because, in all honesty, making a jedi slightly weaker in every category seems kind of ridiculous; it would make more sense if their focus was in one particular area.

Originally posted by CobraSolidus

Originally posted by AmazingAvery

Originally posted by Douhk

These kind of posts are just as bad as the people who unrealistically troll. Please, two wrongs do not make a right. Please show me numbers in that article showing 150000-200000 subscribers instead of assuming so. You cannot guess subscription numbers from finances, as there are numerous ways the company has gained profit from those numbers.

Please, be realistic. Don't make baseless assumptions and claim them to be true when there is no factual evidence. If you are going to say FC has 150,000-200,000 current subscribers, at least have the decency to say you are making a guess rather then saying "if you translate that to subscribers it is easy to see that AoC on average has 150000-200000 paying playing subscribers right now". These forums have gone to chaos; the only things I can find nowadays are posts like these or the posts that say this game is doomed. It is absolutely not doing very well but it's not going to be failing (at least not for a long while). It takes alot to take out an MMO, even one as extensive (and expensive, no doubt) as AoC.

 

 

Gotto agree mate.

 

It is all assumption simple as that and people looking to wing it one way or another when they have no interest in the game.

{ Mod Edit }

 

 

Come on guys lighten up. I am of the same opinion as you guys. I really wish for these forums to be game discussion forum instead of trolling about all kinds of other stuff. Anyway, as Q3 is out now, I just want to make sure all people have access to it and that they are pointed in the right direction for knowing how to make themselves up an opinion on this games population numbers and it's future. This will undoubtly be usefull for the future when doomsayers again start to moan around in our forum. Petition, lets make this forum to a game discussion forum on the note that AoC has reasonable healthy subnumbers in referance to the many doomish posts by Azrile & co.

The way you wish to do so doesn't solve anything. If you wish to give some insight, please do so in a reasonable fashion. (EDIT: AA goes further into this in his response below mine I see.) It may seem miniscule, but it is important nonetheless when you take something as factual evidence when it outright isn't. Not to mention, some of the people that are believed to be trolls around here are actually giving some pretty good facts. Just because they dislike the game does not make them a troll, though there are plenty of trolls here that are evident (I'd agree with AA on that, lum is one). Maybe we just have different definitions of trolls.

to be perfectly honest, I highly doubt I will be playing this game again; I do not like FCs business practices and that is enough for me to not be apart of anything they make, simple as that. However, I am highly interested in how their business practices work for them, and so far, they seem to be going more fluently then I expected (I'd merely guess now it's maybe in the 75k range, which is most likely more then enough to survive). Whether the game succeeds or fails is not of great importance to me (I'd prefer it to fail, in perfect honesty), but it fascinates me how FC turns this game around, if at all. If you enjoy the game, that's fantastic; I am not one of the folks around here who seem to have the idea that anyone who likes this game is insane. However, I hate posts like this that are overly positive and unrealistic of this game, being good or bad.

But cheers to a hopefully civil forum in the future for these sides of the forums, at least eventually (although highly doubtful). I won't be much apart of it; I haven't been posting in these forums barely at all since I've left the game. But as a watcher and someone who comes to these sides from time to time I would like to see more posts that are not dribble.

These kind of posts are just as bad as the people who unrealistically troll. Please, two wrongs do not make a right. Please show me numbers in that article showing 150000-200000 subscribers instead of assuming so. You cannot guess subscription numbers from finances, as there are numerous ways the company has gained profit from those numbers.

Please, be realistic. Don't make baseless assumptions and claim them to be true when there is no factual evidence. If you are going to say FC has 150,000-200,000 current subscribers, at least have the decency to say you are making a guess rather then saying "if you translate that to subscribers it is easy to see that AoC on average has 150000-200000 paying playing subscribers right now". These forums have gone to chaos; the only things I can find nowadays are posts like these or the posts that say this game is doomed. It is absolutely not doing very well but it's not going to be failing (at least not for a long while). It takes alot to take out an MMO, even one as extensive (and expensive, no doubt) as AoC.

actually that's a very good question. How do they plan on making this game about cops and criminals when it's PG? I'm all in for drugs and prostitution in this sort of game, and it's probably the only game I'd approve of it.

Originally posted by lorndarken

now this being a mmo based off of kotor, with this game take the same apporch to charecter creation and improve upon some areas where you would have your different types, where as it be a force user, deffencive type or mele abuser , or are we going to be given a lame sauce type of class branch , where the skill we learn are only usable through certain trees , and you have to be of this allingment just to be able to use an abillity.

After just recently deciding to pick up KOTOR II for another try after 2 years on the shelf (just finished it yesterday) I'd have to agree with this, to a sense. The combination feat / force / skill system works well in the same sense communism works well. "Perfect communism", the actual definition of communism, implies a perfect world; a utopia. Everyone is equal, everything functions perfectly, everything is coherent and happy lollipop land.

Of course, we all know how communism works in the real world. In the same sense that communism cannot work unless everything functions perfectly, a feat / force / skill system works exactly in the same sense; it is either perfect or fatally flawed. Kind of an awkward point trying to compare communism with a game, but the point should be there nonetheless. If the system isn't perfect, you'll end up with cookie cutter builds, which I consider even worse then the "tree" system. Not to say the tree system as seen in WoW and practically all MMOs coming out now is a bad thing; while it definitely doesn't give as much freedom as what the feat / force / skill system in KOTOR is like, it has a lot of benefits. It is simple for the developers to create, it is not as complicated as it needs to be for the players, and at least offers a little bit of variety in the fact that you can have somewhat more customization within the tree system (if they do it right, that is). The thing is, if they do the tree system right, you're left with a good system; all good and the only bad being is that it doesn't have as much customization as it could. However, if the tree system was designed poorly, it isn't necessarily the end of the world for that game either. You'll get cookie cutter builds, but at least some diversity as there are different branches within the tree.

Originally posted by LuckyCurse

Originally posted by madstoog

 Xp toggle is stupid, play the game and get to the end game.

This feature would just result in people sticking to the highest level for the tiers, 11, 21 and 31 and killing any newbies in seconds that come along because they will be able to max out their gear.

Why play the game if u dont want to advance?

get to level 40 and play, trust me lvl 40 will be far more entertaining than level 11... unless your one of those people who enjoy ease mode.

Cool, I was hoping to find someone who would pay my $15/month.  Oh wait, you're not going to? Then don't tell me how to enjoy the game. 

I've enjoyed every level so far, and sometimes my friends are left behind due to less playtime or less fortune in playing.  I would like to shut off xp and stick around with them.  Or, as mentioned, help out a lowbie new to the guild.  Or, just stick around and continue enjoying Sea of Claws, or Troll Country, or High Pass, or wherever I happen to be.    Point being, why rush to end game? I see zero point if you're enjoying yourself. 

I've given valid reasons for an xp toggle, you've given your opinion of my character -- apparently I'm an unskilled newb killer with uber equipment (There is so little difference in equipment at lower levels that we know this can't be true).

I'm going to give you a piece of advice:  Don't believe everything you think.  And definitely feel free to not share it.  

- LC   

I don't really agree with everything that the poster you responded to was saying, but the statement I underlined may prove to be a valid point. It could be problematic making an /xp toggle.

And second, you do not make the majority. I'm not saying that your idea of how to play the game is wrong; there are times myself where I simply want to play through a specific area that I really like, yet feel rushed out way too quickly. However, it's a very small margin. And it brings more problems (like what I underlined in stoog's point) over more solutions. It's more of a pain for the devs then it's worth, basically.

To be honest, I think that the genre is going to need to start finding new styles of combat for MMOs. The majority of these new MMOs have the idea down (like AoC or TCOS) but they don't seem to know how to properly implement them.

There are basically three different things that make me slightly interested in this game:

1.) The "class" concept

2.) The deck system

3.) The look of the game

Not often does the look of a game really effect my judgement, but I have to say this game looks quite awesome. I love the art style they are going for. It's very stylised and uncommon; the best way to describe it is looking at the world itself through a glass bottle. It's unique and fresh, to say the least.

I absolutely agree with what you are saying, OP, at least from your philosophy of things; in an MMO, we should be able to follow our own stories and literally feel like our characters are "living" in the game, whereas they are not static and systematic. However, this is neigh impossible to accomplish properly.

At that point, I myself do not mind following a specific story IF IT IS GOOD; and being able to change that fixated story to something else in many occassions that, mind you, I have never seen in any MMO,